Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 31.383270 35.143620 39.507043 45.031563 51.972911 60.602098 72.483947
2025-04-13 27.376136 32.430661 38.921311 48.224755 61.921725 82.780608 120.800308
2025-04-20 23.554341 28.922085 36.293009 47.840565 67.119909 102.447400 190.857993
2025-04-27 21.098835 26.652945 34.707624 48.335108 73.951809 131.264899 355.749056
2025-05-04 19.304611 24.950607 33.515564 49.007880 81.572281 172.129689 915.133537
2025-05-11 17.810776 23.432431 32.269896 49.163903 88.389987 225.144507 7076.472797
2025-05-18 16.451585 21.923578 30.753404 48.356122 92.649491 283.736334 NaN
2025-05-25 15.484504 20.900773 29.874654 48.564859 99.969518 393.466602 NaN
2025-06-01 14.585027 19.882016 28.841010 48.167038 105.493624 543.628459 NaN
2025-06-08 13.777026 18.930773 27.795016 47.484378 109.884327 764.725471 NaN
2025-06-15 13.082946 18.105113 26.874236 46.881575 114.442612 1162.724390 NaN
2025-06-22 12.505171 17.425765 26.145743 46.582391 120.338456 2157.318600 NaN
2025-06-29 11.861672 16.597314 25.064299 45.234686 121.153036 3725.641740 NaN
2025-07-06 11.690741 16.566723 25.527919 48.013044 145.599603 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 11.218202 15.972957 24.803092 47.411592 151.554634 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.872488 15.579816 24.445889 47.784518 164.946844 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.573648 15.249410 24.182965 48.384713 181.993436 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 10.261808 14.874912 23.789374 48.506626 196.587296 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.906896 14.401336 23.142196 47.701261 202.203312 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.648538 14.090974 22.821690 47.897359 219.650784 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.368823 13.725941 22.350841 47.504548 230.885192 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.090098 13.349229 21.825836 46.835354 238.359907 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 8.834316 13.003849 21.346379 46.245131 246.816042 NaN NaN